Backwards Odds NCAA Handicapping of Las Vegas College Football Odds
and Betting Lines
An introduction to how College Football Locks makes
college football picks & predictions using its backwards
odds handicapping of Las Vegas college football lines and point spreads in an effort to
uncover possible indications in the line as to which teams odds makers and insiders might potentially
think has a non-publicized advantage to
beat the line. Of course when it comes to betting college football, there are no guarantees...
Part 1) Successful Handicapping Often Starts With
Abandoning Methods That
Seem Like They Should Work Well For Making College Football Picks...
But Rarely Do:
When most football bettors and handicappers embark on a mission
to make college football picks,
they use college football betting stats and their knowledge of sports
to try to determine which team
has the best chance to cover the spread.
Get ready for some big news about this college football wagering approach.
It may not be the way to make successful NCAA football picks & predictions
versus Las Vegas college football lines.
This is how most people seem to go about handicapping college football games,
yet most bettors who are gambling on college football do not seem to win in the long run with such
college football betting methods...
To make enough winning college
football picks to beat Las Vegas
college football lines over the long run, it may be necessary to
start by analyzing the Vegas line for a given football game in reverse to attempt to
match the perspective of Las Vegas' oddsmakers.
options for CollegeFootballLOCKS.com's NCAA football picks.
Matching the perspective of Vegas' oddsmakers is something we endeavor to do at
a technique we call Backwards Odds Handicapping.
With Backwards Odds Handicapping,
instead of looking forwards trying to determine if team A or team B
can cover the football line, we use methods to look in reverse to
attempt to determine why the line on a given college football game involving team A and B
has been set, adjusted, and/or maintained at a particular odds number...
How did the line originate? Why is the line the way it is?
By analyzing the line in reverse, we're potentially able to do
two things that might increase the odds of
making better college football predictions:
1) We shift focus away from using
statistics, sports knowledge, and other seemingly unprofitable techniques to pick
which team has the best chance to cover the point spread.
2) We redirect our focus towards using possible indications
in the line on a given
game to identify
oddsmakers and other insiders may think has the best chance to cover.
Part 2) Indications in Las Vegas' College Football Lines and Point Spreads are
What We Are Attempting to Find in an Effort to Determine Which
Teams Oddsmakers and Insiders
May Possibly Think Have the Better Chance to Cover the NCAA Football Line in a Given Game:
It is our belief that Las Vegas college football odds
and lines may be filled with valuable indicators that can potentially be
used to pinpoint teams which oddsmakers and insiders may think have a better chance to cover
the line in a given game. By using Backwards Odds Analysis we seek to
isolate these indications and uncover winning college football picks.
We believe the key to using Backwards Odds Analysis to make
college football picks is to take the position that
Vegas' college football lines and college football point spreads
are the oddsmakers' instrument for dividing the betting action
in half for a given game...
Phrased another way... The very existence of
betting lines and point spreads potentially gives Las Vegas
college football odds makers an element of control over how how those who bet on college football
as a whole, decide to wager in a given game.
Because as you shall see,
the line on a game is not the oddsmakers' assessment of what
the difference in final score will be... It is an assessment
of what particular football odds line number will draw even action.
Thus, you must first understand how Vegas' oddsmakers
use betting lines to divide action in half before you can
potentially use Backwards Odds Handicapping
as a key to make NCAA football predictions...
Are you ready to take a peek into the inner workings of oddsmakers and
NCAA betting lines?
Part 3) How Oddsmakers May Use College Football Odds and Point Spreads
to Keep NCAA College Football Betting Action Divided in Half:
Las Vegas' oddsmakers are masters at using NCAA lines and NCAA point spreads
to keep betting action divided in half. By making adjustments
to a given college line or NCAA point spread, oddsmakers may be able to sway large numbers of
people who bet on NCAA football who haven't
made a decision on which team to bet on in a game,
to potentially place their bet on the team that has "lesser action."
Ask yourself, how often have you been undecided on a game
only to make your decision after the line moved
down 1/2 point, or up 1/2 point? The movement in the line
was Vegas' effort to balance betting action, and often times
movements can have a direct result
on your betting decision.
Of course, when college football lines and
point spreads are moved, it can also sway
bettors who have already placed a bet on a game-- to place
additional college football bets on that game... Or to even reverse their
direction and wager the
other way to try to "sandwich the game" and hit both football wagers.
But as far as college football Vegas odds makers are concerned,
keeping the action split at each NCAA football odds line number
or NCAA point spread is the key... Doing so allows
Vegas to make its juice from college football gambling operations.
By flexing mastery over
NCAA football odds
NCAA football point spreads
Las Vegas' oddsmakers can potentially have an incredible
level of influence over who
bets what amount,
and at what point in time they bet that amount, thus enabling them to
keep the action split the way they like.
However, before oddsmakers can even begin to make
adjustments to a particular betting
line to keep
action divided in half, they must choose a starting point
or opening Vegas line
for the NCAA game.
Part 4) The Goal For Oddsmakers When Creating Vegas' Opening
College Football Lines and Point Spreads:
When creating opening lines, the incentive for Vegas' oddsmakers is
to choose lines
that will do a fast, efficient job of splitting
action in half. Doing so guarantees Vegas that it
can make the most juice.
If an opening line doesn't draw even action, the sooner
the line can be adjusted to draw even action,
the more juice Vegas can guarantee for itself.
Phrased another way-- the more a college line needs to be adjusted
to keep betting action even,
the more overall risk Vegas is exposed to, and the lower the
profit Vegas stands to make.
This is because Vegas can get stuck with
uneven betting action for any given college football odds line or point
spread number, which cuts into profits.
Therefore, you can
see that Las Vegas' oddsmakers would be very interested in knowing
college football point spread or odds line number
would draw even betting action for a given game before having
an opening line for that game to the
But before oddsmakers could know
what an opening line on a given game would need to be set at
in order to draw even action, oddsmakers
would need to know
people betting college football planned to put their money on in
advance of that game, for a variety of different odds line numbers.
This brings us to the Las Vegas oddsmakers'
greatest strength when it comes to using
NCAA football lines
and point spreads to divide betting action.
The oddsmakers' greatest strength for dividing
is based on the fact that
most gamblers betting on college football make their betting decisions
by relying on the level of information they have
collected about the matchup. As a result, Vegas' oddsmakers
have likely developed techniques that allow them to measure
the level of information
prospective football bettors
know about a given game before having to create and release
the opening line for that game.
One method oddsmakers may potentially use to measure the
information level known to various classes of
about a game is to release an exclusive "unrefined"
test line for select knowledgeable and well respected gamblers or
"Vegas insiders" to bet into.
For inside gamblers who have access to these "unrefined"
test NCAA football lines, it may be like
having access to free money... Because if the
college betting line ends up being far off from the
test line, the game can be
sandwiched by insiders for a potential double hit...
But it's well worth it for Vegas.
Because by allowing select insiders an exclusive opportunity to
place bets against
early college football lines, oddsmakers get a chance to determine
whether or not select insiders are betting
the same side in a game, whether insiders are split, and how
strongly insiders feel about their selection in terms of how much they
Collecting this type of information about how
early inside bettors are evaluating their
college football selections in given games
helps the oddsmakers make an assessment of what the
opening college line will need to be set at in order
to generate even betting action
from the combination of inside sports bettors and general
public sports bettors on a given game.
Of course oddsmakers also study general public betting patterns.
But as a rule they are more concerned with
measuring insider betting interest because
insiders place bigger bets (which are harder to balance),
and because insiders may potentially at any moment have access
to more relevant information about a given game than anyone else.
For example, insiders may potentially know:
Insiders may potentially be in possession of so much pertinent info
(a.k.a. inside football info/inside reads)
that never gets disseminated to the public prior to the start of
the game that most people may not believe it...
The level of information that insiders may possess
is obviously the driving point for their bets.
since Vegas' oddsmakers provide insiders with an early test line to
so that they can
measure the level of insider interest in a game before
creating the opening line
for the sole purpose of balancing action, Las Vegas' football
point spreads may potentially reflect the level of college football betting information
known to insiders who gamble on football about a given game.
- what types of strategies the teams plan to use
- whether or not the teams are emotionally ready to play
- which crew is officiating the game and what affect it can have on the teams' playing styles
- whether the starting quarterback has a blister on his thumb
- or if he has a wart on his big toe...
Make CollegeFootballLOCKS.com your source for NCAA football handicapping.
Get subscription access
for CollegeFootballLOCKS.com's weekly college football picks.
So now you have an idea of how CollegeFootballLOCKS.com
does its NCAA handicapping... To us it's not the teams
that matter... It's not the stats
that matter... It's the line on the game that matters.
The football line for the game potentially shows that college football insiders and oddsmakers may
possibly know something the football betting public
But how can one extract such possible indications from the line
to make college football picks? How can one pinpoint which teams
oddsmakers and insiders might be thinking have an edge to cover the college football point spread?
That's where our Backwards Odds
Handicapping attempts to come into play to examine the college football line in reverse.
Part 5) How to Use Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas
College Football Odds & Point Spreads
to Look For Possible Indications in the Line:
With oddsmakers and insiders potentially in
possession of so much important college football betting information,
and with most of the public
probably not having a clue as to how such information may affect the
way Vegas' NCAA football lines are treated,
sports bettors who don't know how to look at NCAA football Vegas lines may be
positioned to lose an large percentage of their NCAA football bets.
Consider the following
progression of a hypothetical college football matchup where unpublicized information may
First, the oddsmakers must create
the opening line. So they provide insiders
with an early "unrefined" test line which allows oddsmakers
to measure the level
of inside interest.
The result of the test line
shows that early inside bettors are betting heavily one way.
So the opening line is potentially
released at a number
that entices the general public
to bet the opposite way that the early bettors
are betting on.
The money bet by
the potentially uninformed public counters
the money placed by insiders
keeping the action even.
Thus, oddsmakers may be able to offset the presence of unpublicized information by
general publics' uninformed take on a game to set the
line at a number
that literally entices the public to balance possible insider action
by betting on the team that insiders and oddsmakers
may perceive as being the disadvantaged team.
Unreleased or inside information on a game may also potentially
manifest itself to NCAA insiders after the opening NCAA football line
has been set...
In such cases, the line
may once again be adjusted to potentially entice the general college football wager public to bet
on the lower probability or disadvantaged team
to balance action.
Of course, the football is an odd shaped thing, and anything can happen
in any given game. Consider a college football insider
with potentially non public information who bets on a given NCAA football game. There is no guarantee that
game will win whatsoever. Anything can happen on that football field.
Something to consider when betting on football at a Las Vegas sportsbook.
At any rate, should any of this be considered unethical?
Not really. After all, access to
information is not illegal in sports.
And it's not the oddsmakers' duty to
report what they may or may not know about a
But it is the oddsmakers' duty to set the line at a number
that draws even action. If they didn't, Vegas couldn't
any juice and you wouldn't be able to place football bets...
So if inside information or an inside read potentially exists,
oddsmakers may simply react by setting the line at a number that
balances action, even if it means the possibility of enticing the
public to bet college football teams that they may perceive as being the disadvantaged team.
Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas' NCAA football betting lines
attempts to pinpoint such games.
Part 6) Don't Fail to Acknowledge
that the Perspective of Oddsmakers and Insiders May Potentially Be Uncovered Using
Handicapping of Las Vegas' College Football Lines:
If you fail to acknowledge that Backwards Odds Handicapping of
Vegas' NCAA college football lines and point spreads may potentially be used to pinpoint possible indications
as to which teams
oddsmakers and insiders may think has an unpulicized advantage to cover,
you may be
at risk to experience a reduction in your chances
of winning college football bets
as you potentially could be enticed time and time again into betting
games with seemingly favorable college football odds when information
is prevalent that is stacked against you.
CollegeFootballLOCKS.com uses its Backwards Odds
Analysis of Las Vegas college football lines and point spreads
in an effort to determine
how hard they may potentially be driven by
the presence of non-public information or so called inside reads.
Part 7) An Edge For Uncovering Winning College Football Picks?
Whether or not such game deciding info
may exist in a specific game may potentially be determined by
an analysis of the NCAA Vegas line for that given game.
In other words, CollegeFootballLOCKS.com attempts to use its
Backwards Odds Handicapping
clues in a given game that may possibly indicate if
oddsmakers or insiders think one team has an non-publicized edge to beat the
Of course there's no guarantee you're going to win
any given college football bet made using such possible indications in the NCAA football line.
But limiting yourself to Backwards Odds Handicapped NCAA football picks & predictions
for NCAA football bet selection may potentially put you on the
the winning side with a higher frequency
compared to using
typical techniques that don't seem to work versus Vegas college football lines in the long run, such as
which team is supposedly better.
Part 8) Getting Our College Football Predictions
Made Using a Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas
College Football Lines:
Are you ready to get
college football picks & predictions
made using Backwards Odds Handicapping of
Las Vegas betting lines in an effort to potentially win
is the pioneer of this type of
college football handicapping for college football bet selection.
See if you can improve your college football betting success. Of course there are
no guarantees. The football is a funny shaped object that can bounce any way, regardless
of how strongly someone may feel about a certain college football pick.
One final note before you move on to the
college football pick(s)
if currently available:
It is advisable to never wager on college football
with any amount of money that would be unaffordable if lost.
Make CollegeFootballLOCKS.com your college football handicapper...
The pioneers of Backwards Odds Handicapping
of Las Vegas college football betting lines for making
college football picks. Again there are no guarantees of success and
money can be lost betting on football picks.
Click here to get a subscription for all of
CollegeFootballLOCKS.com's picks for one week
or more, click for details.
CollegeFootballLOCKS.com hopes this has been interesting summary as to how we endeavor
to use Backwards Odds Handicapping of
Las Vegas college football odds
to make weekly college football picks.