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Backwards Odds NCAA Handicapping of Las Vegas College Football Odds and Betting Lines

An introduction to how College Football Locks makes college football picks & predictions using its backwards odds handicapping of Las Vegas college football lines and point spreads in an effort to uncover possible indications in the line as to which teams odds makers and insiders might potentially think has a non-publicized advantage to beat the line. Of course when it comes to betting college football, there are no guarantees...

Part 1) Successful Handicapping Often Starts With Abandoning Methods That Seem Like They Should Work Well For Making College Football Picks... But Rarely Do:
When most football bettors and handicappers embark on a mission to make college football picks, they use college football betting stats and their knowledge of sports to try to determine which team has the best chance to cover the spread.

Get ready for some big news about this college football wagering approach. It may not be the way to make successful NCAA football picks & predictions versus Las Vegas college football lines. This is how most people seem to go about handicapping college football games, yet most bettors who are gambling on college football do not seem to win in the long run with such college football betting methods...

To make enough winning college football picks to beat Las Vegas college football lines over the long run, it may be necessary to start by analyzing the Vegas line for a given football game in reverse to attempt to match the perspective of Las Vegas' oddsmakers.

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Matching the perspective of Vegas' oddsmakers is something we endeavor to do at CollegeFootballLOCKS.com using a technique we call Backwards Odds Handicapping. With Backwards Odds Handicapping, instead of looking forwards trying to determine if team A or team B can cover the football line, we use methods to look in reverse to attempt to determine why the line on a given college football game involving team A and B has been set, adjusted, and/or maintained at a particular odds number... How did the line originate? Why is the line the way it is?

By analyzing the line in reverse, we're potentially able to do two things that might increase the odds of making better college football predictions:

1) We shift focus away from using statistics, sports knowledge, and other seemingly unprofitable techniques to pick which team has the best chance to cover the point spread.
2) We redirect our focus towards using possible indications in the line on a given game to identify which team oddsmakers and other insiders may think has the best chance to cover.

Part 2) Indications in Las Vegas' College Football Lines and Point Spreads are What We Are Attempting to Find in an Effort to Determine Which Teams Oddsmakers and Insiders May Possibly Think Have the Better Chance to Cover the NCAA Football Line in a Given Game:
It is our belief that Las Vegas college football odds and lines may be filled with valuable indicators that can potentially be used to pinpoint teams which oddsmakers and insiders may think have a better chance to cover the line in a given game. By using Backwards Odds Analysis we seek to isolate these indications and uncover winning college football picks.

We believe the key to using Backwards Odds Analysis to make college football picks is to take the position that Vegas' college football lines and college football point spreads are the oddsmakers' instrument for dividing the betting action in half for a given game...

Phrased another way... The very existence of betting lines and point spreads potentially gives Las Vegas college football odds makers an element of control over how how those who bet on college football as a whole, decide to wager in a given game. Because as you shall see, the line on a game is not the oddsmakers' assessment of what the difference in final score will be... It is an assessment of what particular football odds line number will draw even action. Thus, you must first understand how Vegas' oddsmakers use betting lines to divide action in half before you can potentially use Backwards Odds Handicapping as a key to make NCAA football predictions... Are you ready to take a peek into the inner workings of oddsmakers and NCAA betting lines?

Part 3) How Oddsmakers May Use College Football Odds and Point Spreads to Keep NCAA College Football Betting Action Divided in Half:
Las Vegas' oddsmakers are masters at using NCAA lines and NCAA point spreads to keep betting action divided in half. By making adjustments to a given college line or NCAA point spread, oddsmakers may be able to sway large numbers of people who bet on NCAA football who haven't made a decision on which team to bet on in a game, to potentially place their bet on the team that has "lesser action." Ask yourself, how often have you been undecided on a game only to make your decision after the line moved down 1/2 point, or up 1/2 point? The movement in the line was Vegas' effort to balance betting action, and often times movements can have a direct result on your betting decision.

Of course, when college football lines and point spreads are moved, it can also sway football bettors who have already placed a bet on a game-- to place additional college football bets on that game... Or to even reverse their direction and wager the other way to try to "sandwich the game" and hit both football wagers. But as far as college football Vegas odds makers are concerned, keeping the action split at each NCAA football odds line number (dollar number) or NCAA point spread is the key... Doing so allows Vegas to make its juice from college football gambling operations.

By flexing mastery over NCAA football odds and NCAA football point spreads Las Vegas' oddsmakers can potentially have an incredible level of influence over who bets what amount, and at what point in time they bet that amount, thus enabling them to keep the action split the way they like. However, before oddsmakers can even begin to make adjustments to a particular betting line to keep action divided in half, they must choose a starting point or opening Vegas line for the NCAA game.

Part 4) The Goal For Oddsmakers When Creating Vegas' Opening College Football Lines and Point Spreads:
When creating opening lines, the incentive for Vegas' oddsmakers is to choose lines that will do a fast, efficient job of splitting action in half. Doing so guarantees Vegas that it can make the most juice.

If an opening line doesn't draw even action, the sooner the line can be adjusted to draw even action, the more juice Vegas can guarantee for itself.

Phrased another way-- the more a college line needs to be adjusted to keep betting action even, the more overall risk Vegas is exposed to, and the lower the profit Vegas stands to make. This is because Vegas can get stuck with uneven betting action for any given college football odds line or point spread number, which cuts into profits.

Therefore, you can see that Las Vegas' oddsmakers would be very interested in knowing what specific college football point spread or odds line number would draw even betting action for a given game before having to release an opening line for that game to the public.

But before oddsmakers could know what an opening line on a given game would need to be set at in order to draw even action, oddsmakers would need to know which team people betting college football planned to put their money on in advance of that game, for a variety of different odds line numbers. This brings us to the Las Vegas oddsmakers' greatest strength when it comes to using NCAA football lines and point spreads to divide betting action.

The oddsmakers' greatest strength for dividing betting action is based on the fact that most gamblers betting on college football make their betting decisions by relying on the level of information they have collected about the matchup. As a result, Vegas' oddsmakers have likely developed techniques that allow them to measure the level of information prospective football bettors know about a given game before having to create and release the opening line for that game.

One method oddsmakers may potentially use to measure the information level known to various classes of football bettors about a game is to release an exclusive "unrefined" test line for select knowledgeable and well respected gamblers or "Vegas insiders" to bet into.

For inside gamblers who have access to these "unrefined" test NCAA football lines, it may be like having access to free money... Because if the college betting line ends up being far off from the test line, the game can be sandwiched by insiders for a potential double hit...

But it's well worth it for Vegas. Because by allowing select insiders an exclusive opportunity to place bets against early college football lines, oddsmakers get a chance to determine whether or not select insiders are betting the same side in a game, whether insiders are split, and how strongly insiders feel about their selection in terms of how much they are betting.

Collecting this type of information about how early inside bettors are evaluating their college football selections in given games helps the oddsmakers make an assessment of what the opening college line will need to be set at in order to generate even betting action from the combination of inside sports bettors and general public sports bettors on a given game.

Of course oddsmakers also study general public betting patterns. But as a rule they are more concerned with measuring insider betting interest because insiders place bigger bets (which are harder to balance), and because insiders may potentially at any moment have access to more relevant information about a given game than anyone else.

For example, insiders may potentially know:

  • what types of strategies the teams plan to use
  • whether or not the teams are emotionally ready to play
  • which crew is officiating the game and what affect it can have on the teams' playing styles
  • whether the starting quarterback has a blister on his thumb
  • or if he has a wart on his big toe...
Insiders may potentially be in possession of so much pertinent info (a.k.a. inside football info/inside reads) that never gets disseminated to the public prior to the start of the game that most people may not believe it... The level of information that insiders may possess is obviously the driving point for their bets. And since Vegas' oddsmakers provide insiders with an early test line to bet into so that they can measure the level of insider interest in a game before creating the opening line for the sole purpose of balancing action, Las Vegas' football odds and point spreads may potentially reflect the level of college football betting information known to insiders who gamble on football about a given game.

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So now you have an idea of how CollegeFootballLOCKS.com does its NCAA handicapping... To us it's not the teams that matter... It's not the stats that matter... It's the line on the game that matters. The football line for the game potentially shows that college football insiders and oddsmakers may possibly know something the football betting public doesn't. But how can one extract such possible indications from the line to make college football picks? How can one pinpoint which teams oddsmakers and insiders might be thinking have an edge to cover the college football point spread? That's where our Backwards Odds Handicapping attempts to come into play to examine the college football line in reverse.

Part 5) How to Use Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas College Football Odds & Point Spreads to Look For Possible Indications in the Line:
With oddsmakers and insiders potentially in possession of so much important college football betting information, and with most of the public probably not having a clue as to how such information may affect the way Vegas' NCAA football lines are treated, sports bettors who don't know how to look at NCAA football Vegas lines may be positioned to lose an large percentage of their NCAA football bets.

Consider the following progression of a hypothetical college football matchup where unpublicized information may exist:
First, the oddsmakers must create the opening line. So they provide insiders with an early "unrefined" test line which allows oddsmakers to measure the level of inside interest.

The result of the test line shows that early inside bettors are betting heavily one way.

So the opening line is potentially released at a number that entices the general public to bet the opposite way that the early bettors are betting on. The money bet by the potentially uninformed public counters the money placed by insiders keeping the action even.

Thus, oddsmakers may be able to offset the presence of unpublicized information by using the general publics' uninformed take on a game to set the line at a number that literally entices the public to balance possible insider action by betting on the team that insiders and oddsmakers may perceive as being the disadvantaged team.

Unreleased or inside information on a game may also potentially manifest itself to NCAA insiders after the opening NCAA football line has been set... In such cases, the line may once again be adjusted to potentially entice the general college football wager public to bet on the lower probability or disadvantaged team to balance action. Of course, the football is an odd shaped thing, and anything can happen in any given game. Consider a college football insider with potentially non public information who bets on a given NCAA football game. There is no guarantee that game will win whatsoever. Anything can happen on that football field. Something to consider when betting on football at a Las Vegas sportsbook.

At any rate, should any of this be considered unethical?
Not really. After all, access to information is not illegal in sports. And it's not the oddsmakers' duty to report what they may or may not know about a given game.

But it is the oddsmakers' duty to set the line at a number that draws even action. If they didn't, Vegas couldn't consistently make any juice and you wouldn't be able to place football bets... So if inside information or an inside read potentially exists, oddsmakers may simply react by setting the line at a number that balances action, even if it means the possibility of enticing the public to bet college football teams that they may perceive as being the disadvantaged team. Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas' NCAA football betting lines attempts to pinpoint such games.

Part 6) Don't Fail to Acknowledge that the Perspective of Oddsmakers and Insiders May Potentially Be Uncovered Using Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas' College Football Lines:
If you fail to acknowledge that Backwards Odds Handicapping of Vegas' NCAA college football lines and point spreads may potentially be used to pinpoint possible indications as to which teams oddsmakers and insiders may think has an unpulicized advantage to cover, you may be at risk to experience a reduction in your chances of winning college football bets as you potentially could be enticed time and time again into betting games with seemingly favorable college football odds when information is prevalent that is stacked against you.

CollegeFootballLOCKS.com uses its Backwards Odds Analysis of Las Vegas college football lines and point spreads in an effort to determine how hard they may potentially be driven by the presence of non-public information or so called inside reads.

Part 7) An Edge For Uncovering Winning College Football Picks?
Whether or not such game deciding info may exist in a specific game may potentially be determined by an analysis of the NCAA Vegas line for that given game.

In other words, CollegeFootballLOCKS.com attempts to use its Backwards Odds Handicapping to find clues in a given game that may possibly indicate if oddsmakers or insiders think one team has an non-publicized edge to beat the line. Of course there's no guarantee you're going to win any given college football bet made using such possible indications in the NCAA football line.

But limiting yourself to Backwards Odds Handicapped NCAA football picks & predictions for NCAA football bet selection may potentially put you on the the winning side with a higher frequency compared to using typical techniques that don't seem to work versus Vegas college football lines in the long run, such as worrying about which team is supposedly better.

Part 8) Getting Our College Football Predictions Made Using a Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas College Football Lines:
Are you ready to get college football picks & predictions made using Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas betting lines in an effort to potentially win more bets?

CollegeFootballLOCKS.com is the pioneer of this type of college football handicapping for college football bet selection. See if you can improve your college football betting success. Of course there are no guarantees. The football is a funny shaped object that can bounce any way, regardless of how strongly someone may feel about a certain college football pick.

One final note before you move on to the college football pick(s) if currently available:
It is advisable to never wager on college football with any amount of money that would be unaffordable if lost.

Make CollegeFootballLOCKS.com your college football handicapper... The pioneers of Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas college football betting lines for making college football picks. Again there are no guarantees of success and money can be lost betting on football picks.

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CollegeFootballLOCKS.com hopes this has been interesting summary as to how we endeavor to use Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas college football odds to make weekly college football picks.

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